Permafrost thaw causes differently perceived risks with varying impacts across the Arctic. Relevant physical processes, five key hazards and societal consequences were identified using a comparative, transdisciplinary analysis.
Our study examines the key risks associated with Arctic permafrost thaw, which not only contributes to global CO2 and methane emissions but also has direct, widespread impacts on around three million residents living in vulnerable Arctic regions. Thawing permafrost can cause significant infrastructure damage, disrupt mobility and supply chains, degrade water quality, jeopardize food security, and release harmful contaminants and infectious diseases. Between 2017 and 2023, our interdisciplinary research team studied four Arctic regions—Longyearbyen (Svalbard, Norway), Avannaata (Greenland), Beaufort Sea and Mackenzie River Delta (Canada), and Bulunskiy district (Republic of Sakha, Russia). The research combined physical and social sciences, conducting fieldwork that included soil and water sampling, permafrost temperature measurements, and direct engagement with local communities through interviews and workshops.
We identified five key interrelated risks emerging from permafrost thaw. These include infrastructure failures due to seasonal ground deformation, mobility and supply disruptions in delta and coastal areas, and the risk to clean drinking water in areas like Longyearbyen. Additionally, thawing permafrost threatens food security in regions heavily dependent on hunting and fishing, while the thawing process also poses serious environmental health risks, such as the release of contaminants from old oil and gas sites. These findings underscore the need for urgent and informed adaptation strategies and policies. The follow-up project, ILLUQ, will further explore the complex interactions between permafrost, human health, and pollution.
Read the full blog post in Nature: A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw
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Written by Alexandra Meyer and Susanna Gartler.
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Photos: © Nature Communications, Susanna Gartler, Gartler et al. 2025.
About the scientific author
Dr. phil Alexandra Meyer: PostDoc in the ILLUQ Projekt
Mag. Susanna Gartler: researcher in the ILLUQ Projekt
